Battle For Ohio

Maybe next year Redlegs?

Another year has come and gone and no post season for the Redlegs.  In the beginning of the year, when silly fans have high hopes, I wrote a three part article about the Reds and their chances to just finish .500.

I was taking a risk, since the Reds haven’t had a winning season in 9 years, but I thought that they had made some small, but crucial moves to take steps back to legitimacy.  Sadly, they fell a little short this year.  They finished 78-84 and in fourth place.  Had they not gone a disgusting 8-19 in July they might have been able to make the .500 goal.  Interestingly enough, that was right in the middle of the Great Willy Taveras Slump of ’09.  More on that later.

How did they rank this year in major stat categories out of 16 national league teams?

• Team Average:  .247

• Home Runs Hit:  158, 8th in the NL.  Higher than I thought.

• Stolen Bases:  96, 7th in the NL.

• Hits:  1349, 15th in the NL.  Can’t score if no one gets on base!

• Strike outs:  1129, 11th in the NL.  Can you imagine if we still had Dunn and Griffey?

• On Base Percentage:  .318, 14th in the NL

• Sacrifices:  41, 12th in the NL

• Wins:  78, 10th in the NL

• Home Runs given up:  188, 14th in the NL

• Strike outs:  1069, 12th in the NL

• Errors: 89, 10th in the NL

For a team that was supposed to be all about pitching and defense, their small ball categories are pretty terrible.  Being second to last in the NL in on base percentage is what really stands out to me.  All year long we didn’t have anyone at the top of the order getting on base and that was killing us when guys like Votto and Phillips WERE getting hits, but had no one to drive home.  Being 10th in the NL in errors is not good either.  This team HAS to get stronger up the middle next year.  More on that later as well.

So what went right this year?  What went wrong?  What do we have to look forward to next year?  And what holes need to be filled?  There are a lot of questions that need to be answered, and I will do what I can for now, but as the off season wears on, I am sure that this list will change.

What went right:

• Bronson Arroyo.  It is so weird to put him in the what went right category.  To start the year he had two AWFUL outings.  Hell he got shelled worse than Cambodia when Nixon was President.  But look at his end of the year stats.  He was easily our Ace this year with 15 wins and a sub 4.00 ERA.  He is also the only pitcher to log more than 200 innings and to stay healthy throughout the whole year.

• Homer Bailey, finally.  Bailey started in triple A and struggled, he even struggled when he finally got the call up and was sent back down.  While he was down in Triple A an outfielder, not a pitching coach, taught him how to throw a split finger.  From then on he would dominate Triple A and then got his final call up to the bigs.  He was not spectacular, but was good, and finished the season strong with a pitcher of the week award for his final two performances.  Bailey should make the rotation next year easy and should finish with at least 10 wins.

If there was ever a reason to watch the Reds, it is Joey Votto.

• Joey Votto.  Despite being out for about 15 games due to vertigo and dealing with his father’s death, Joey was outstanding this year.  Over 80 runs, 25 home runs, and over 80 RBI.  A very solid season for a team that was offensively challenged.  They had better find a different position for Yonder Alonso, because I want Votto anchored at first base for years to come.

• September call ups.  It was so nice to finally see Drew Stubbs batting lead off.  I had been calling for it for two months.  Drew was spectacular in Triple A, and was worthy of a shot to dethrone Taveras.  Of course Dusty hates young talent, so it took Taveras and Dickerson getting hurt to make it happen.  Drew struggled a little bit being up here, but when he started to slump he always seemed to break out of it, I like that kind of resiliency.

What went wrong:

• Free agents.  Our big two were Willy Taveras and Ramon Hernandez.  Taveras showed why no one else wanted him.  That guy could jump out of a boat in the middle of the Atlantic and miss water.  He was so horrible.  There was a time in late May through mid June that Willy went 2-51 at the plate.  But that didn’t stop Dusty from trotting him out there day after day.  You can’t have your lead off hitter go 2-51 and expect to win games, especially after you dumped your two biggest home run threats last year.  This was supposed to be a small ball team, which makes the lead off hitter that much more important.  Big thanks to Willy who proved to be nothing more than another version of Corey Patterson.  Ramon was not much better.  This was supposed to be his come back year.  Instead he spent most of the time on the DL.  He is getting old for a catcher, a lot of wear and tear on those knees and it showed this year.  He might be at that point in his career where he is a first basemen/DH for an American League team.  he only had one error, but Ryan Hannigan threw out more runners, and was better with the bat.

Now that's the Alex Gonzalez I know and love.

• Alex Gonalez’s comeback.  FAIL.  They were really thinking that Alex could come back and win a Gold Glove at short this year, instead he barely played because of more injury complications.   When he did play, he was so awful with that bat that his supposed “magic glove” wasn’t worth it, especially on a team that had issues hitting and scoring.  I was more than happy to send him back to Boston and would have taken a bag of balls in the trade, they would have served more of a purpose than he did.

• Aaron Harang.  Another terrible year for Aaron.  He was supposed to be healthy and he lost weight in the off season to help with conditioning.  What happened?  Two years ago he was primed for a breakout year and now he has become a liability.  I keep wanting to believe that he will get it together, but this really was supposed to be that year.  Can he forget this miserable year and get ready for 2010?  I really didn’t think that 16 wins from him was going to be a stretch for this past year, instead he only got 6.  The Reds need Harangotaun to return to form in order to get over that .500 hump next year.

• Line up management.  All year long I was screaming that Dusty couldn’t fill out a line up card to save his life.  The Willy Taveras debacle is well documented, but what about Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips?  Let’s start with Phillips.  He has gone 30/30 before, why not take advantage of that speed? Bat Phillips second or third.  Nope, ‘ol Dusty had him bat clean up almost all year.  How is a guy supposed to use that speed when you are forcing him to be your RBI guy?  What about Votto?  He is OK in the three hole as long as you have someone else batting 4th other than Brandon Phillips.  I would have liked to have seen Votto in the 4 hole and bringing home Phillips.

• Edwin Encarnacion.  He was deplorable at best.  He struggled offensively, which was supposed to be his strong suit and his defense was as bad as ever.  I mean, we really might as well have let David Beckham play third with the way Edwin kicked it all over the field, and I bet David actually could hit a breaking ball better than Edwin.  Thankfully he was traded near the deadline.  We got Scott Rolen in return, which would have been a great deal 5 years ago.

• Dusty’s desire to destroy every pitchers arm that he has ever managed.  He is off to a good start here in Cincinnati.  Volquez’s arm is as dead as disco.  Cueto again spent some time on the DL this year, not nearly as serious as Volquez, but concerning none the less.  Harang also spent some time on the DL and was shut down for the rest of the year.  And lastly, Owings made it to the DL as well.  For those of you counting at home - that’s 4 out of the 5 starters!  Arroyo is the only person to have escaped Dusty’s rath, Bailey is next in Dusty’s cross hairs.  I can only hope that Dusty is gone before Volquez comes back, if not it could mean the end of his career.

The song remains the same:

• Johnny Cueto.  He took a small step forward this year.  Improving from 9-14 to 11-11.  He still needs another big step next year.  More consistency, and better location is in order for young Johnny.  He will show flashes of brilliance, followed by moments of stupidity.  More and more I am not sure that Johnny will be anything better than a good number three starter.

• Brandon Phillips.  He was batting out of position all year, which I think caused a drop in his numbers slightly.  I think there was too much pressure on him to be the run producer when he should have been helping set the table.  He still had a very good statistical year, but I know he can do better.  Don’t be surprised to see him win another gold glove for his play at second base.

• Jay Bruce.  Jay has some concerned that he is the next Adam Dunn.  I do not share that concern although, I think he got in a bad way and tried to do too much to get out of it.  He is young and that was the first time he really had to deal with that kind of adversity.  I don’t think that he will ever be a .300 hitter, but if he can hit .275 and hit 25+ home runs I would be tickled.  Plus he is so much better than Adam defensively it isn’t funny.  Hell, a monkey with a glove is better in the field than Dunn was.  Bruce did get hurt, surprise, but when he came back he looked like he was pressing less and had a lot more success.  Getting hurt might have been just what Jay needed to get his head on straight.  Plus he is still young and this was his first “full” season as a Redleg.  Next year might prove to really be his break out year.

• Fransico Cordero.  He had 39 saves and only 4 blown saves.  That is a 91% save percentage, not bad.  But he did give you a heart attack quite a bit there at the end.  He was gassed and everyone could tell.  I would love to see what our young closers could do and get Coco’s contract off our books, but the Reds inexplicably traded away our two best closers of the future this past year.  So, I guess it is another year of chest pains in the ninth inning.

Holes that need filling (Don’t take that a dirty way, although I just chuckled)

• Shortstop.  If this team is really shifting its focus to pitching and defense, shortstop is the most pivotal position on the field.  We haven’t had a great shortstop since Barry Larkin, and even his range wasn’t great.  We need someone with a flashy glove and a strong arm.  I am less concerned about his offensive output, provided he can bat at least .250.  We have had to suffer through Felipe Lopez, Alex Gonzalez, Royce Clayton and a myriad of other no namers.  We need someone to solidify the middle of this defense.

• Catcher.  An ageing Ramon Hernandez was clearly not the answer.  Ryan Hannigan is not bad, but again I would love to see them get a catcher with a rocket arm and a manager on the field.  Someone who can help this young pitching staff be the best they can be.  Some one with the mind set of Jason Veritek.  A true captain from a position that needs it the most.

If he can sing and dance, he can play left field.

• Left field.  I would love to see a big bat out there.  If I can go all Dr. Frankenstein for a second, I would like to take Dickerson’s fielding, Adam Dunn’s strength, And Jerry Harriston’s average.  Maybe Jonny Gomes is the answer?  I know Gomes is not the best fielder, but he is better than Dunn, and has good power.  He hit 20 home runs in only 98 games.  Maybe platoon Dickerson and Gomes, although I would like to see Gomes get in a groove and see what he can do.

What we have to look forward too:

• Juan Francisco.  He was a delightful september call up.  He TORE UP minor league pitching, his problem seems to be the same that Edwin had.  Worse that piss poor defense.  Can we switch to the American League?  Left field might be an option, but do you want to do the Adam Dunn experiment again?  Third base is a pretty critical position defensively, just ask Edwin.  If they can find this guy a home, he has a bright future.

• Drew Stubbs.  I think over the last month even Dusty had to recognize that Drew is the center fielder of the future.  it wasn’t hard to de-throne Willy Taveras, but Drew proved to be quite the spark at the top of the lineup.  He might be one of the main reasons the Reds were 18-11 in their last month of play.

• Todd Frazier.  He can hit.  But is he the defensive shortstop we need?  No, not really, but he might be the best option we have to step in and produce.  At best we see him in the middle of 2010, at worst we see him in 2011.

• Yonder Alonso.  Great prospect, great first basemen, uh-oh.  We already have a great first basemen.  I don’t think we see him until September call ups next year, but where are you going to play him?  Rumor has it he is a first basemen and that is it.  And the Reds have shown no interest in moving him around.  A great talent without a home, I can’t wait to see how the Reds blow this.

Another losing season, but one that might have shown some hope of moving in the right direction.  Walt Jockity is the GM and he built a winner in St. Louis.  I can have some patience, but after almost ten years without a winner, it is getting thin.  Can the Reds build on this season?  Will they go out and get the pieces they need?  The off season begins now gentlemen, get to work and earn those inflated paychecks.

Be sure to tune in for my 2010 Reds preview closer to spring training.